Kingsport Spirit

Sullivan County Mayor-Elect Zane Vanover coined the term “grounded growth” in his campaign. To my knowledge, he didn’t specify exactly what that meant, but I think I have an idea.

The April 2026 Move to Kingsport numbers show a program that has cooled from its post-pandemic peak, but is still producing steady results. For many locals who are weary of out-of-state attention, that slowdown may feel like a welcome respite. Newcomers remain critically important to Kingsport’s future, but a slightly slower pace gives us a chance to catch our collective breath.

Newcomers are one of the main reasons Kingsport’s growth rate remains net positive — and even then, just barely. That modest growth helps keep our local economy healthy. It supports housing demand, small businesses, schools, churches, nonprofits, health care, restaurants, retail, and the basic community services we all rely on.

But let’s keep it in perspective. Kingsport, Bristol, and Sullivan County are not Middle Tennessee. We are not seeing the overwhelming growth rates of Nashville’s suburbs, and we are not even growing at the pace of Knoxville. Our challenge is different. We are trying to grow enough to stay healthy without growing so fast that we lose who we are.

That is part of our appeal. We are big enough to have many of the things people need, but still small enough to feel like a hometown.
We are also located on the edge of a vast region facing population decline. From the Virginia state line north through Kentucky, West Virginia, and southern Ohio, many local leaders would love to have our ‘problem’: a community still attracting enough new people to keep its population moving in the right direction. Without that, communities face a much harder reality — shrinking tax bases and increasing pressure on the services that remain.

So yes, a slower pace is healthy. It gives us room to breathe, plan, and absorb growth wisely. But if you are one of those wishing away newcomers entirely, be careful. You might get exactly what you are wishing for — and it may not be what you expected.

I worked the polls yesterday, and I could not help but notice how many voters voluntarily paused to thank us — for election integrity, asking for photo ID, and simply for serving our community.

More than a few expressed genuine gratitude for living in Tennessee. Some said it reminded them of the place they left before it took a turn, and that they felt compelled to use their vote to help keep Tennessee from going in that same direction.

What struck me most was that these comments were completely unsolicited. They were not prompted. They were not political speeches. They were simple, heartfelt observations from people who showed up to exercise one of their most important rights as citizens. We did not engage; we just listened and followed the protocol. But they couldn’t help themselves.

For the past 12 months ending April 2026, Move to Kingsport recorded 575 new families from outside the region, representing 47 states. That equals 2.41 families per workday. The median home purchase price for those households was $333,000, or $174 per square foot.

For April 2026 alone, the program recorded 37 new families from outside the region, representing 19 states, at a pace of 2.47 families per workday. The April median purchase price was $300,000, or $154 per square foot.

Compared with April 2025, the monthly count declined from 50 families to 37, a drop of 26%. But the workday pace barely changed, moving from 2.5 families per workday to 2.47. That suggests April 2026 was not a weak month as much as a smaller-volume month with the same basic rhythm of relocation continuing.

The rolling 12-month comparison gives a better view. For the 12 months ending April 2025, Move to Kingsport recorded 636 families. For the 12 months ending April 2026, that number was 575 families, a decline of 61 families, or about 9.6%. That is a real decrease, but it is still more than two families per workday choosing Kingsport from outside the region.

The longer history puts this in perspective. From 2007 through 2016, Move to Kingsport averaged about 456 families per year. From 2017 through 2020, the average rose to about 634 families per year. During the high-demand pandemic and post-pandemic years of 2021 through 2025, the average increased to about 709 families per year, including a peak of 848 families in 2021. The 2025 total was 591 families.

So the current 12-month total of 575 families is below the post-pandemic high, but still slightly above the long-term average of about 560 families per year from 2007 through 2025. In plain terms, the program is coming off an unusually hot period, but it is not falling apart.

If April’s monthly count were used as a simple year-to-date estimate, four months at 37 families per month would equal about 148 families through April. Annualized over 12 months, that pace would produce about 444 families for 2026. That would be below recent years and closer to the older pre-pandemic pattern. But the stronger rolling 12-month total suggests the broader trend remains healthier than one month alone would show.

The housing numbers also tell an important story. In April 2026, the median purchase price was $300,000, down from $322,785 in April 2025. Over the past 12 months, the median price was $333,000, down from $344,328 the year before. At the same time, the rolling price per square foot increased from $161 to $174. That suggests buyers may be purchasing somewhat smaller homes, but Kingsport homes are still holding value on a per-square-foot basis.

That matters even more when compared with the national market. In March 2026, the National Association of Realtors reported a national existing-home median price of $408,800, with sales down 3.6% for the month and inventory still below normal levels. NAR also reported the South’s median price at $362,600. Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.30% as of April 30, 2026.

Against those numbers, Kingsport still stands out. The April 2026 Move to Kingsport median of $300,000 was about 27% below the national median and about 17% below the South’s median. Even the rolling 12-month median of $333,000 remained about 19% below the national figure.

That is the real story. Move to Kingsport has slowed from the rush of the pandemic years, but it continues to bring new families, new income, new home purchases, and new energy into the community. In a national housing market marked by high prices, tight inventory, and elevated mortgage rates, Kingsport’s mix of value, location, and quality of life remains a strong advantage.

The Kingsport Spirit has always been about balance — welcoming growth without losing who we are. These numbers show exactly that: steady growth, national reach, and a community that still offers something many places no longer can — a real chance to come home.