Kingsport Spirit

As we watch home prices and property values increase, it’s tempting to pin the blame on newcomers. After all, the narrative is simple: more people equal more demand, which drives prices up. But that’s not the full story—and it’s not the real problem.

Only about 2% of Kingsport’s population consists of recent transplants.

Over the past five years, Sullivan County recorded 4,624 more deaths than births—a natural population decline offset only by the arrival of 9,047 newcomers. If that growth rate continues through 2030, the county will have added enough new residents to produce a 7.5% population increase over the decade. That’s a healthy rate—right in the 5% to 10% per-decade range needed to support a stable economy, workforce, and tax base. Anything less risks stagnation—a path that may bring lower home prices, but also a weakening economy.

The real issue is supply. After the 2008 financial crisis, housing construction nationwide plummeted and never fully recovered. From 2000 to 2007, the U.S. averaged around 1.8 million new housing starts per year. But between 2009 and 2019, that figure dropped to just 1 million annually, a shortfall of nearly 800,000 homes each year. Even with recent gains, we’re still building fewer homes than before the crash.

Kingsport hasn’t been spared. Local construction hasn’t been able to keep pace with demand. There are limited places to build. Almost every vacant nook and cranny of town has been filled with housing: from the old, abandoned Stonegate Walmart site, to land near Hunter Wright Stadium, to the former Dickson School property, to bank-held land near Fort Henry Walmart, and even dormant subdivisions plotted in 2008 that sat empty for years. As these infill opportunities run dry, where will we turn? A few parcels remain on the periphery, but those, too, are quickly being claimed.

Meanwhile, young adults—especially recent graduates—struggle to qualify for mortgages, often burdened by student loan debt. The result is a lopsided market: high demand chasing too few homes.

In response, remodeling has surged. That’s a silver lining—revitalizing older homes and stabilizing existing neighborhoods. But it doesn’t add to the housing stock. To bridge the gap, demand for apartments is growing. Multifamily developments have few vacancies and are commanding a high price. Drive through any apartment complex and see how many out-of-state tags are there—very few.

This is a supply-side crisis, not an invasion of outsiders. Blaming newcomers won’t build a single house. What will help is some sort of housing policy solution at the highest level, perhaps something like the G.I. Bill that led to a boom in single-family housing starts after World War II. Those homes are still around today. If anything, they are giving Kingsport a competitive affordability edge over neighboring cities that don’t have those compact homes in higher-density neighborhoods in the middle of town.

If we want Kingsport to remain livable and affordable, the solution isn’t to close the gates. It’s to build a better, more balanced future. But that will require help from policymakers who control the economic knobs that encourage market capitalization.

This isn’t just a Kingsport problem—it’s a national one. According to the latest Census data, America’s housing shortage reached a record 4.7 million units in 2023, despite a post-pandemic construction surge. While 1.4 million homes were added last year, 1.8 million new households were formed, deepening the gap. Millions of Americans—especially Millennials—are doubling up with non-relatives, not by choice but because affordable housing isn’t available. We’ve got to find ways to allow more houses to be built. Until then, the housing deficit will keep growing, and affordability will slip further out of reach.