Kingsport Spirit

A wise mentor once said that a community’s progress should be measured in quarter centuries, not quarters.

The point was to take the long view — across multiple administrations, economic cycles and political priorities — rather than judge success by quick fixes or short-term gains.

Economic change rarely follows an election calendar. Industrial sites can take years to prepare. Downtown redevelopment can take decades. Investments in schools, infrastructure, and quality of life often do not show results until long after the people who made the decisions have left office.

That makes a 25-year look at Sullivan County especially useful.

Data from the Tennessee Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, Middle Tennessee State University, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis show a county that spent much of the past quarter century adjusting to major economic change.

Sullivan County did not match Tennessee’s rapid population growth. Its manufacturing base lost thousands of jobs. Consumer spending grew slowly after inflation.

But more recent numbers point in a different direction.

Population growth has accelerated. Employment has recovered. Major manufacturers have reinvested. Housing construction has strengthened. And inflation-adjusted economic output has grown faster in recent years than it did during most of the previous two decades.

The story is less about an economic boom than a long economic reset.

Built on manufacturing

Sullivan County entered the 21st century with an economy shaped heavily by manufacturing.

Kingsport developed around chemicals, paper, printing, glass, and other industries. Bristol had its own manufacturing base. These companies did more than create jobs. They helped build the region’s middle class and supported schools, neighborhoods, businesses, and public services.

Then the industrial economy changed.

NAFTA took effect in 1994. China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Textile and apparel production moved overseas, publishing changed, companies consolidated plants, and automation allowed factories to produce more with fewer workers.

No single factor explains what followed. Trade policy and global competition affected some industries, while technology and rising productivity reduced the number of workers needed in others.

Sullivan County was especially exposed because manufacturing represented such a large share of its economy.

The Kingsport-Bristol metropolitan area had about 38,000 manufacturing jobs in 1995. Today it has roughly 21,000 — a loss of nearly half.

Kingsport Press is one familiar example. Once one of the community’s major employers, the plant closed in 2006 with about 425 workers remaining.

But the property did not remain an empty industrial relic.

The former Press complex and surrounding area have since been reused for grocery and retail businesses, restaurants, education, health care, business offices, a farmers market, lofts, apartments, and the Kingsport Carousel.

Other older industrial properties are following the same path. The neighboring Kingsport Hosiery Mill is being converted into a boutique hotel and event venue.

The theme is simple: properties built for an earlier economy are finding productive new uses instead of being left behind.

The question facing Sullivan County was not whether the old economy would return.

It was what would replace it.

Seeds planted years earlier

Kingsport’s 1999 Economic Summit came during that period of transition.

The effort broadened the definition of economic development. Recruitment of industry remained important, but attention also turned toward higher education, downtown redevelopment, tourism, entrepreneurship, housing, quality of life, and attracting people as well as companies.

Another major change came in 2004, when Sullivan County, Kingsport, Bristol and Bluff City joined together in the countywide economic development partnership now operating as NETWORKS Sullivan Partnership.

That meant acquiring industrial property, extending roads and utilities, preparing sites and marketing them before companies were ready to invest.

Economic development often works that way. Communities prepare land before knowing who will use it. They improve downtowns before knowing which businesses will follow. They invest in schools, parks, and infrastructure without knowing which future family or company will eventually choose the community because of them.

The mayor of Greenville, South Carolina, has often described his city as a “25-year overnight success story.”

The phrase fits much of Sullivan County’s recent experience.

Population grew slowly — until recently

Sullivan County had about 153,000 residents in 2000.

The latest Census estimate puts the population near 164,000, an increase of about 7% over 25 years.

That trails Tennessee by a wide margin and also trails several nearby counties.

Washington County grew about 31% over the same period. Anyone wondering why traffic on I-26 seems heavier today has part of the answer right there.

Greene County grew about 17%, Hawkins about 11%, Sullivan about 7%, and Carter about 1%.

But Sullivan County’s growth did not occur evenly.

More than half of its net population increase since 2000 has occurred since 2020.

For much of the first two decades of this century, population was nearly flat.

That recent change matters because Northeast Tennessee also has an aging population and more deaths than births.  Continued growth increasingly depends on attracting new residents.

County lines do not tell the whole story

Population alone can give a misleading picture of the economy.

A person can live in Johnson City but work in Kingsport.

Federal labor statistics count the person as an employed Washington County resident.

But the job and the economic production associated with the workplace occur in Sullivan County.

The same pattern works in the other direction. A Kingsport resident can work in Hawkins County. The population and employment are credited to Sullivan County, while the job is attributed to Hawkins County.

Sullivan and Washington function as the region’s two major employment centers.

Sullivan County is anchored by Kingsport and Bristol, along with manufacturing, health care, retail, and service employment. Washington County is anchored by Johnson City, East Tennessee State University, health care, government, and a growing service economy.

Hawkins and Carter counties are more commuter-oriented. Greene County is more self-contained because a larger share of its residents also work within the county.

Rather than one central county surrounded by suburbs, Northeast Tennessee operates more like a two-center regional economy.

Workers, shoppers, patients and students cross county lines every day.

Sullivan remains the region’s largest economy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis measures the value of goods and services produced within each county.

Using inflation-adjusted dollars, Sullivan County’s real gross domestic product increased from about $7.1 billion in 2001 to $9.5 billion in 2024 — growth of roughly 34%.

Among the five major Northeast Tennessee counties, Sullivan remained the largest economy in 2024.

Washington County produced about $7.2 billion in real economic output, followed by Greene at about $2.6 billion, Hawkins at $1.9 billion, and Carter at about $1.2 billion.

The long-term trend, however, was not especially strong.

From 2001 through 2019, Sullivan County’s inflation-adjusted economic output increased only about 10%, while Tennessee grew much faster.

Then the pace changed.

From 2019 through 2024, Sullivan County’s real GDP increased nearly 22%.

Tennessee grew about 19% during that period, while the national economy grew about 13%.

No county controls the national economy, so not every gain can be credited to local policy. But Sullivan County’s recent performance was stronger than both its own long-term trend and the larger economies around it.

Consumers tell a steadier story

Retail sales provide another measure of economic health.

In 2000, Sullivan County recorded about $12,157 in retail sales per resident, above the Tennessee average at the time.

Adjusted for inflation, that equals roughly $20,700 in 2022 dollars.

The Census Bureau reported Sullivan County retail sales of about $21,030 per resident in 2022.

That means real retail spending per person grew only modestly over the period. Tennessee performed somewhat better.

But Sullivan County’s retail geography also changed.

In 2011, Tennessee enacted the Border Region Retail Tourism Development District Act. Bristol used the law to support infrastructure tied to major retail and tourism development, including The Pinnacle.

Some activity clearly shifted from older retail centers, including locations across the Virginia line. But Bristol’s total retail sales rose sharply as The Pinnacle expanded, while Kingsport and Johnson City sales also continued growing.

That suggests the development did more than shuffle existing spending. It strengthened Bristol as a regional shopping destination, captured sales that otherwise could have occurred outside Tennessee, and drew customers from a wider area.

The Border Region Act appears to have both reshuffled the retail deck and helped make the deck larger.

Older shopping centers have adapted, too.

Fort Henry Mall is increasingly being repositioned as a retail and entertainment destination. The region’s first IMAX theater opened there in July 2026, and Tiebreakers has announced a roughly 55,000-square-foot family entertainment center.

That reflects a broader change in retail. Successful malls increasingly depend on experiences that cannot be purchased online. Movies, dining, games, and entertainment give people more reasons to visit, stay longer, and spend locally.

Fort Henry Mall is not trying to recreate the mall of the 1980s or 1990s. It is adapting to how consumers spend their time and money today.

Across the state line, the former Bristol Mall underwent an even more dramatic transformation into Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, turning an obsolete retail property into a tourism, entertainment, dining, and hospitality destination.

Those investments benefit more than the community where they are located. Visitors use regional highways, hotels, restaurants, shops, attractions and the Tri-Cities Airport.

A rising tide can raise all ships.

By 2022, total Sullivan County retail sales had reached about $3.38 billion.

Washington County was nearly equal at about $3.34 billion, even though it had fewer residents. Its retail sales per resident were higher.

Together, Sullivan and Washington counties accounted for roughly three-fourths of retail sales among Sullivan, Washington, Greene, Hawkins, and Carter counties.

A person can live in Hawkins County, work in Sullivan County, and shop in Washington County.

The population belongs to Hawkins.

The job belongs to Sullivan.

The retail sale belongs to Washington.

That is why population alone can understate the economic reach of a regional center.

Manufacturing did not disappear. It changed.

Sullivan County’s industrial base has also shown an ability to adapt.

Eastman provides perhaps the clearest example.

In 2007, Project Reinvest committed more than $1.3 billion to modernize technology, infrastructure, and production at the Kingsport site. In 2013, Project Inspire added another $1.6 billion investment program, along with hundreds of additional jobs. Then in 2021, Eastman announced approximately $250 million for its molecular recycling facility, which began production in 2024.

Together, those three initiatives represent more than $3.15 billion in Eastman investment in Kingsport over less than two decades.

Domtar added another major reinvestment, spending roughly $350 million to convert its century-old Kingsport mill from traditional paper production to recycled containerboard.

Combined, those major Eastman and Domtar projects represent about $3.5 billion in industrial investment.

Manufacturing did not disappear. It changed.

Modern plants produce more with fewer workers, so manufacturing employment is unlikely to return to 1990s levels. But billions of dollars invested in existing industrial sites show that advanced manufacturing remains an important part of Sullivan County’s economy.

Investing in the next economy

Economic development is also becoming broader than factories, industrial parks and retail centers.

The Kingsport Dental Clinic of the Appalachian Highlands offers an example of what the next generation of investment can look like.

The University of Tennessee Health Science Center teaching clinic opened in 2024 through a partnership involving UT, Kingsport, Ballad Health, ETSU, and other community partners. It provides patient care while training dental students, residents, dental hygienists, and dental assistants.

The next phase is even more significant. Planning is underway for a larger academic dental presence that could eventually accommodate about 50 fourth-year dental students spending their full final year in Kingsport.

That is health care, but it is also economic development.

Students live here, spend money here, and build professional relationships here. Residency and clinical programs create jobs. More importantly, training health professionals in the region increases the chance that some will remain here to practice — strengthening a workforce that communities across Appalachia need. The original Kingsport project was specifically designed to expand both dental education and access to care in Northeast Tennessee.

It is another example of planting a seed whose full economic value will not be known for years.

A regional growth story

Washington County’s rapid growth does not necessarily come at Sullivan County’s expense.

A new Sullivan County employer can lead an employee to buy a home in Hawkins County. Growth in Johnson City can create customers for Kingsport businesses. Carter County workers can commute to Washington County, while Greene County supports its own industrial base and participates in the larger regional market.

The economic question is increasingly regional:

Can Northeast Tennessee create enough jobs, workers, housing, and investment to offset an aging population and natural population loss?

Sullivan County still has challenges.

Its long-term population growth remains modest. Retail spending per person has been fairly flat after inflation. Employers need workers. Housing must keep pace with demand. Wages must remain competitive. And the county remains more dependent on manufacturing than many communities.

But the 25-year picture shows why long-term investments matter.

The region has gone through industrial restructuring, recessions, a housing crash, a pandemic, and major changes in global trade. Through it all, communities invested in industrial sites, downtowns, education, infrastructure, recreation, tourism, housing, and quality of life.

Private employers reinvested as well.

A quarter can tell us whether the numbers went up or down.

A quarter century gives us a better measure of whether a community has truly changed direction.

For Sullivan County, the latest numbers suggest that many of the seeds planted years ago are now bearing fruit.

The next generation is counting on today’s leaders to make the same kind of long-term investments for the next 25 years.