Kingsport Spirit

My grandmother used to say, “All things in moderation.” (For the record, she wasn’t talking about alcohol, as she abhorred the stuff.)

How much growth is good? When does it slip into the category of undesirable? What if we shrank? How would businesses survive? How would families get by?

A growth of 5%-10% per decade is considered desirable and sustainable. Anything more or less is cause for concern.

Faster growth overloads roadways and infrastructure. Slower growth (or even decline) has a negative impact on the economy and social systems, such as a declining workforce or a shortage of consumers to support local businesses.

The Census Bureau just released 2022 population estimates for counties. City population estimates won’t be available until midsummer.

While 2 years does not make a trend, what if the current rate was projected to the 10-year horizon? Keep in mind, 2020-2022 was also the height of pandemic-related moves from out-of-state. With the national economy cooling due to inflation and higher interest rates, that has tempered to some extent.

Here are the numbers for the 4-state Appalachian Highlands region. The color chart ranges from hot to cold. Red is >10% growth per decade, green is 5%-10%, yellow is 0%-5%, light blue is declining 0%-5%, and dark blue is declining >10%.

The growth rate of Kingsport’s primary county (Sullivan)–if extended 10-years–would be 8.4%, putting in the “just right” category. Kingsport’s secondary county (Hawkins) would be 11.7%, putting it barely into the “too hot” category. But Hawkins lost population (slightly) from 2010-2020, so it’s current growth rate shouldn’t be cause for concern.

Neighboring Washington County, TN is on a trajectory to grow 11.9% in 10 years. This is in addition the region’s highest population growth from 2010-2020. So, when folks complain about traffic on I-26 and almost-daily incidents, backups, and delays, you can follow the numbers and understand why.

There’s a clear line of demarcation within the 4-state Appalachian Highlands region. The Tennessee-Carolina portion is growing, but the Virginia-Kentucky portion is shrinking, which is challenging to a balanced regional economy. The Tennessee and Carolina portions are on a trajectory to grow 8.2% and 7.9% respectively, putting them in the growth category of “just right”. Conversely, the Virginia and Kentucky portions are on a path to lose 6.3% and 18.9%, which should sound some economic alarms.

Surprisingly, little Hancock County, TN–if it holds–has the highest growth trajectory in the 4-state Appalachian Highland region at 13.7%. But it lost 2.3% during 2010-2020, so its recent growth represents a turnaround likely driven by the desirability of rural locations during the pandemic period. Hancock County’s total population is only 6,842, which puts it slightly smaller than the population of Church Hill.

On the other end of the spectrum is Buchanan County, VA (Grundy), which is on a trajectory to lose another 25% of its population after having already lost 15.5% from 2010-2020.

Looking beyond the region, Williamson & Rutherford Counties in Middle Tennessee are on a trajectory to grow another 28.2% on top of the hypergrowth they already experienced from 2010-2020. Davidson County (Nashville) lost population and if it continues could realize a 5.4% population decline in 10 years.

Similarly, Greenville & Spartanburg Counties in upstate South Carolina, are projecting 21-27% growth.

In Southwest Virginia, Roanoke City-County are on track to lose a combined 5.6% in the next 10 years.

I’ve often said that the growth rate in Kingsport is like the porridge described in Goldilocks and the Three Bears, “not too hot, not too cold, but just right”. We’re big enough to meet the vast majority of your daily needs, but we’re not at risk of being overtaken by a neighboring metropolitan city like Nashville or Knoxville.

Sure, I’d like pro sports and an IKEA, but I’d rather drive 3-5 hours a couple times per year rather than live 24/7/365 with the population required to have them. Besides, I can find virtually everything I need in a small local store or have it conveniently delivered to my door.

One of the many reasons that Kingsport, Tennessee is just right for me.